NASER ELAHI; Elahe Masoomzadeh; seyedziaadin kiaalhosseini; seyed Hadi arabi
Abstract
Consideration of regional systems as a way of managing national security barriers along with peaceful economic relations are achieved in the regionalization process. One of these agreements is the Eurasian Economic Union. The present study inspects the potential impact of the trade agreement between ...
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Consideration of regional systems as a way of managing national security barriers along with peaceful economic relations are achieved in the regionalization process. One of these agreements is the Eurasian Economic Union. The present study inspects the potential impact of the trade agreement between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union on export sectors of industry and agriculture using the gravity model over 2001-2018.The results demonstrate the positive effect of the mean variables of GDP and FDI on exports from Iran to Eurasia in industry and agriculture and indicate the negative effect of the variables on product deriving from multiplication of population, tariff rate and real exchange rate with exports. The elimination of trade tariffs between Iran and Eurasia can benefit various sectors of Iran's economy, and this benefit is further enhanced when the industry sector tariff is removed.Economic policymakers should consider the economic implications of this agreement for success. If the agricultural sector is faced with import restrictions, it will most likely have negative effects and this option could be deemed as an inappropriate policy in agreement with the Eurasia. The creation of a joint financial mechanism for internal exchanges between Iran and the Eurasia, the formation of a database of Member States' traders for Iranian economic activists, the issuance of business visas among Member States and the establishment of a Eurasian Joint Chamber could enhance Iran's trade with Eurasia in the sector and it can be beneficial to exporting industry and agriculture.
Akbar Komijani; Naser Elahi; Masoud Salehi Rezveh
Volume 6, Issue 21 , November 2015, , Pages 78-61
Abstract
This paper investigates the monetary policy reaction of the Central Bank of Iran with threshold effects. The estimation of the nonlinear reaction function is carried out using a two-step procedure. At first step of this procedure, we follow Caner and Hansen's (2004) threshold approach. Using the Taylor ...
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This paper investigates the monetary policy reaction of the Central Bank of Iran with threshold effects. The estimation of the nonlinear reaction function is carried out using a two-step procedure. At first step of this procedure, we follow Caner and Hansen's (2004) threshold approach. Using the Taylor empirical rules and threshold variables including inflation and output gap we estimate the relevant threshold values. Then, to infer the monetary policy preferences, we employ these threshold values to estimate the asymmetric policy reaction function specified by Favero and Rovelli (2003) and Komlan(2013).This is done by Generalized Method of Moment (GMM). Experimental results show that the asymmetry parameter of the output gap is statistically significant. Thus, the Central Bank reacts more vigorously to negative than to positive output gaps. Also, the results suggest that Central Bank reacts only when the inflation rate is higher than the threshold. This fact indicates that the monetary authorities seek to improve the output and employment, and the priority of controling inflation rate is not considered during the study period.
